2025 PGA Championship betting tips: Our expert’s top picks for Quail Hollow
Last updated:
Our resident expert names his top PGA Championship betting tips ahead of the second major of 2025…
With the field set and odds starting to settle ahead of Thursday’s opening drives, I’ve scoured through the prices on offer across all major bookmakers to see which players I think represent great value in 2025’s PGA Championship.
PGA Championship lineups are renowned for being one of the strongest in the golf calendar, with the fight for the Wanamaker Trophy often going right to the wire. This year looks set to be no different, with the likes of McIlroy, Scheffler, DeChambeau, and Quail Hollow’s last PGA champion – Justin Thomas, all riding high on the back of big wins on tour.
So, without further ado, here are my top picks for the week. And once you’ve cast your eye over these outright picks, why not head over and check out my Quail Hollow betting specials?
2025 PGA Championship betting tips
The Banker: Bryson DeChambeau
11/1 e/w (Paddy Power 10 Places)
This could not be an easier pick. Bryson’s form in US-based majors is ridiculous right now, as he has finished 6th, 2nd, 1st, and 5th in his last four at home. That 2nd came in this event last year, and he has since added a second US Open win, and a career-best finish at Augusta.
Sure, Bryson didn’t have it on the weekend at Augusta, but he still had every chance to win, even going into the back-nine on Sunday, he just couldn’t hit his irons well enough to compete. Since that disappointing final round at the Masters, Bryson has finished 2nd at LIV Golf Mexico and won last time out at LIV Golf Korea, and there really is no reason to think he cannot contend for another major again this week.
In his last four PGA Championship starts, Bryson has finished 4th, 38th, 4th and most recently 2nd and even when 38th, he was 7th going into the final round. He could only finish 33rd here at Quail Hollow in 2017, but subsequent visits to this course for the Wells Fargo Championship have seen him finish 4th and 9th, and this all points to another big week for DeChambeau.
One of, if not the most important thing to look at when predicting a major champion is their performance in recent majors. Bryson ticks that box and then some. When you then consider he’s been in the final pairing in each of his past four events, three times on LIV as well as at the Masters, it’s hard to see DeChambeau anywhere other than in the running in Charlotte.
Until he gives me a reason to jump off, I will keep betting on Bryson in these big events, steadfast in my belief that he’s going to add to his major tally in 2025.
The Each-Way Play: Shane Lowry
35/1 e/w (Betfair Sportsbook 12 Places)
Sure, the Irishman will be devastated with his effort on the 72nd hole, where he three-putted to bogey the hole and gift the Truist Championship to Ryder Cup teammate, Sepp Straka. With that said, zooming out, this is another huge performance from Shane Lowry in a big event this year, as he posts a second runner-up finish in a Signature Event, having finished in the same spot behind Rory McIlroy at Pebble Beach.
In addition to these two runner-up finishes, Lowry finished 7th at the Arnold Palmer, where he was the 36-hole leader, and its these consistent performances among the world’s best that have put me back onto him for a second major in a row.
Lowry was also going well at Augusta again, sitting inside the top 6 going into Sunday, but a brutal final round saw him fall to 42nd. And while that isn’t ideal, it’s probably an unfair blight on what is otherwise a really strong run of form.
Since the Masters, Lowry has finished 18th at the Heritage, played solidly with Rory at the Zurich, and then finished runner-up this past weekend, so there’s really no need to question his current form.
His current form is certainly a big part of why I am betting him this week, but it’s actually his history in this event which made me pull the trigger, as he’s finished inside the top-12 in five of his last seven PGA Championship starts. That consistency is why I will take a hit on the price and take the 12 places on offer, but make no mistake about it, I do think he can win.
Soft conditions could hurt Lowry’s chances and provide longer hitters with an advantage over him this week, but a lot of shorter hitters played well here in 2017, including runner-up, Patrick Reed, who is similarly excellent around the greens. This will be in part due to the event being played in August rather than May eight years ago, and I would favour bigger hitters here, but Lowry so often overcomes the handicap, I am not concerned enough to leave him out.
It’s not a fancy price, but in Lowry we do have a reliable major operator, who should really have four straight top 20s in golf biggest events, but for that terrible final round at Augusta. I’ll take a shot on him having a good putting day on Sunday this time around, as the rest of his game should continue to hold up as he ranks 3rd in SG Tee to Green, a big indicator that he’s potentially ready for a win.
The Long Shot: Justin Rose
100/1 e/w (Sky Bet 8 Places)
The fear here is that Justin Rose’s chances of winning a second major have cruelly passed him by over his past two starts, coming so close at both the 2024 Open and once again at the Masters last month. With that said, I am not quite ready to give up on the Englishman, at odds that look slightly inflated based on the illness that forced him to pull from the Truist.
Everything Rose said about his withdrawal last week suggests it was nothing serious and that he would rather focus on being right for this week than tough it out in last place at the Truist Championship. Fair enough. I am also fine with the idea that he just played poorly, given his ability to find form from nowhere on major weeks.
At 44 time is running out for Rose, but he’s now finished 6th or better in three of his past four majors, dating back to this event last year. In the end, Rose came up well short of Xander Schauffele’s winning total. But after three rounds the Englishman was just three shots back after a blazing round of 64. We would likely prefer him to gradually grow into the event this week, rather than try and back up a low Saturday round on the final day, but we will just take him being in the mix again.
While the Masters is considered his most likely route to doubling his major tally, and The Open has long been considered a big week for Rose, his form in the PGA Championship often goes a little overlooked.
Since 2020, Rose has finished inside the top 10 in four of his five PGA Championship starts, and the one time he didn’t he finished 13th. Two more top 5s in 2012 and 2015 bolster this impressive record, and while his only missed cut since finishing 3rd in 2012 came at this course in 2017, I am willing to give him a shot at triple digits here.
Rose has three top-5 finishes, two of which were top-3s in the Wells Fargo Championship, and that course record, coupled with his incredible PGA Championship form suggests we should give him a chance of finally adding to his 2013 US Open victory.
He played well enough at the Heritage given his devastating loss at Augusta the week before, and I’ll take what he said after his WD last week as a clear sign that he’s gearing everything he has to these four majors and the Ryder Cup in 2025.
On top of all this, I would personally just love to see Rose win another major given his recent run in them in his twilight years, and that does indeed factor into me betting him here.
-
Expert selected PGA Championship betting tips from Today's Golfer.
